Win Projections to be updated soon
Melbourne, 10 October 2025:
Australia coach Andrew McDonald says Pat Cummins is “running out of time” to be fit for the first Ashes Test in Perth but remains optimistic the captain will feature at some stage during the series.
A final decision on Cummins’ availability is expected next Friday as he continues his recovery from a lumbar bone stress injury in his lower back. The 31-year-old underwent scans earlier this week that showed improvement, McDonald confirmed Friday.
However, Cummins has yet to resume bowling, with just six weeks left before the first Test begins Nov. 21. McDonald said the latest scan had allowed the medical team to expand his training, which had been limited to lower-body work for the past month.
“We still aren’t further advanced on whether he’ll play the first Test,” McDonald told reporters. “We are definitely running out of time around that. He’s had a positive week, and by this time next week we’ll be better informed to make a judgment.”
McDonald said Cummins’ next stage of recovery would involve reintroducing bowling — a crucial but risky step.
“The biggest variable we need to add is bowling,” McDonald said. “Patty can do a shortened preparation compared to others, but even then, we’d start to take on some risk — soft-tissue, skill readiness — to make sure he’s prepared to do the job.”
Even if Cummins misses the opener, McDonald expects him to play some part in the five-Test series.
“The week he’s had suggests he’s going to play some part as it sits right now,” McDonald said. “Can that change when we add more variables into training? Possibly. Those injuries can ebb and flow.”
McDonald said the decision would ultimately come down to weighing the risk of an early return against the reward of having the captain available.
Should Cummins be ruled out, McDonald said Australia had the depth to cover his absence, highlighting Scott Boland’s exceptional home record and the readiness of Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser and Sean Abbott as backup options.
Doggett is expected to miss another Sheffield Shield match with a minor hamstring issue but should return later this month. Neser impressed in Queensland’s opener, while Abbott will play for New South Wales next week before joining Australia’s T20 squad to face India.
If Cummins is unavailable, Steven Smith is likely to step in as captain, McDonald said.
“It’s highly likely Steve would be the person we turn to,” McDonald said. “He’s incredibly experienced and did a great job in Sri Lanka when Pat wasn’t on that tour.”
Cummins’ contributions with the bat at No. 8 have also been key in recent years. McDonald said Mitchell Starc could return to that position, while Boland, Nathan Lyon, and Josh Hazlewood have all made valuable lower-order contributions in past Tests.
