Win Projections to be updated soon
Brisbane, 29 November 2025:
Former fast bowler Stuart Broad says England’s chances of leveling the Ashes hinge on navigating what he calls the pink-ball “lottery” in the second Test at the Gabba.
The day-night match begins 4 December, with England looking to rebound from an eight-wicket defeat in the series opener. The Test will start in daylight and finish under floodlights, using a pink ball rather than the traditional red.
“We know the pink-ball Test, having played a few ourselves, is a bit of a lottery,” Broad said on the For The Love of Cricket podcast. “The best team generally wins Test matches, but this one is on more of a knife edge because of the conditions.”
England have lost all three of their day-night Tests in Australia, falling by 120 runs in Adelaide in 2017 and suffering 275-run and 146-run defeats in Adelaide and Hobart during the 2021 tour.
Broad said the timing of the new ball is critical in pink-ball cricket.
“If you get a brand new ball under the floodlights at the Gabba, you should be taking wickets and can break the game open,” he said. “That’s why I don’t like bowling first, you use a new ball in daylight when it doesn’t do much. By twilight it’s 60 overs old and the movement is gone, and the next new ball comes too late.”
He added that winning the toss and batting first “is pretty crucial” in Brisbane. “It’s going to be one hell of a challenge,” he said.
Australia have dominated day-night Tests at home, winning 12 of 13. Teams have chosen to bat first in 11 of those matches, with six going on to win.
Broad said the pink ball remains difficult for batters to pick up.
“The seam is black on a pink background, so you get no clues. With a red ball you might see Starc’s in-swinger coming, but under lights the pink ball almost looks like a big planet flying at you,” he said.
He believes controlling the timing of the new ball can shape the match.
“If you bat first and even get bowled out by tea, you still have a brand new ball under lights,” Broad said. “If you bat well, you control when you bowl and that can decide the game.”
