Win Projections to be updated soon
London, 9 October 2025:
Former England Test captain Michael Vaughan in his column for The Telegraph said:
With the news of Pat Cummins’ injury sinking in, a few people will already be tipping England as favorites for the Ashes this winter. I wouldn’t argue with that — but I’d also say, proceed with caution.
This England team has squandered opportunities before. They blew the last Ashes series and missed their chance to defeat India at The Oval last summer. Now, thanks to Cummins’ injury, they’ve been handed a golden opportunity to do something truly special in Australia.
When Cummins leads Australia, they rarely lose. Nicknamed The Postman because he always delivers, he has that rare presence — like Ben Stokes — that lifts those around him. Beyond his world-class bowling, he offers crucial runs at No. 8. While quick bowling can expose him, his contributions in tight matches, like at Edgbaston in 2023, make a difference.
It’s his balance in the side that’s irreplaceable. Scott Boland is a fine bowler, but without Cummins, Australia’s tail looks alarmingly long: Starc, Boland, Hazlewood and Lyon. Alex Carey is solid at No. 7, but when he glances down the order and sees Starc at No. 8 — that’s a fragile lineup.
In recent Ashes series, especially in Australia, their tail has often frustrated England. This time, though, England might find taking 20 wickets a little easier, especially with Australia’s top three also under scrutiny.
For the first two Tests, Australia have three possible approaches. They could unleash their full pace attack — Starc, Boland, Hazlewood and Lyon — and try to blow England away. Or they could turn to Michael Neser for batting depth, or bring in Mitchell Marsh to strengthen the middle order with extra seam options through Cameron Green and Beau Webster.
Later in the series, spin could play a role. Perth’s surface for the opener will favor pace, and Brisbane’s day-night Test will do the same. But from Adelaide onward, Australia might consider two spinners. They hold a clear advantage there: Nathan Lyon is world-class, and Matthew Kuhnemann offers strong support as a left-arm option.
Steve Smith, who will captain in Cummins’ absence, is a brilliant tactician. Many of Australia’s best ideas already come from him in the slips. His batting record as captain — an average of 68 — speaks volumes.
Still, this all feels eerily familiar to 2010-11, when England last won in Australia. Back then, Australia were unsettled, transitioning away from a golden era, and they lost Ryan Harris to injury. With Cummins sidelined and doubts over their batting, history might just be repeating itself.
That doesn’t guarantee England success — luck and fitness matter, too. England’s pre-Ashes tour of New Zealand could bring setbacks of its own. But there’s no denying their chances look stronger now.
As for Cummins, stress fractures demand patience. If he can’t bowl by Nov. 21 in Perth, it’s hard to see him fit for the Dec. 5 Test. Australia must manage this carefully. The Ashes matter deeply, but one series isn’t worth risking a year of cricket.
They’ll do everything to bring him back, and we might see him later in the series. But stress fractures are unpredictable — and if they don’t make a clear decision soon, Cummins’ situation could turn into a “will he, won’t he” saga that overshadows the summer.
